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In recent discussions surrounding Bitcoin (BTC) and its potential future price trajectory, crypto-enthusiasts and analysts alike are finding new correlations to dissect. Most notably, a correlation with the EURUSD pair (the euro against the US dollar) has come into the spotlight due to a Twitter thread by esteemed analyst Josh Olszewicz.
Olszewicz begins by setting the stage, drawing attention to the widely acknowledged inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY (US Dollar Index). He notes, “Most are aware of the strong historic BTC-DXY inverse correlation. DXY is a USD index against a basket of currencies which has a EURUSD weighting of around 58%. So the BTC-EURUSD correlation should also be relatively high.”
Will Bitcoin Price Follow EURUSD?
What’s intriguing here is the observation Olszewicz makes about the BTC-EURUSD correlation in the period following the pandemic and the last Bitcoin halving. He mentions that the “post-pandemic (post-halving) EURUSD pair has led BTC in both the bullish and bearish direction by anywhere from a month to a full year.”
This pattern, if it continues to persist, might spell some bearish tendencies for Bitcoin. Olszewicz goes on to suggest that, “If this relationship continues to hold, BTC should break down towards the BTFP low of $20k.” This statement is a significant one, indicating a potential substantial drop from its current position, all based on the movement patterns of the EURUSD.
Related Reading: New Bitcoin Prediction: Analyst Backs BTC To Reach $34,500 In 2024
Further supporting this projection, he highlights a technical pattern observed in both BTC and EURUSD, stating, “the EURUSD has completed a bearish H&S, similar to BTC, providing technical fuel for further downside.” A ‘bearish H&S’ refers to the bearish ‘head and shoulders’ pattern, a chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
However, it’s not all gloom and doom. Olszewicz does provide a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin bulls. He posits, “If you’re bullish on BTC here, you’re either hoping this relationship weakens/breaks, or the EURUSD begins to strengthen instead of continuing to weaken.”
BTC’s Second High Does Not Fit
Olszewicz also touches upon some “tin foil” speculations, discussing how the BTC-EURUSD correlation had been seemingly disrupted during Bitcoin’s second high in November 2022. He suggests that the continued fall of EURUSD did not immediately impact Bitcoin’s bullish trend, speculating that actions from major crypto players like 3AC, FTX/Alameda, and the Anchor BTC reserve might have played a role.
Related Reading: Coinbase Holds $25 Billion Worth Of Bitcoin, Becomes Largest Holder With 1M BTC
He states, “It is both possible and likely that the funny business behind the scenes by 3AC & FTX/Alameda, as well as the Anchor BTC reserve, helped delay the inevitable bearish trend by about a year.”
While correlations can provide insight, they are by no means a guarantee of future market movements. Investors should exercise caution and conduct their own research when making investment decisions. Rose Premium Signals added, “interesting observation about the BTC-EURUSD correlation. It’s essential to consider multiple factors in crypto analysis. The relationship could indeed evolve, impacting BTC’s future movements.”
At press time, BTC stood at $26,180.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
Cryptocurrency exchanges review:
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OKX is an Hong Kong-based company founded in 2017 by Star Xu. Not available to users in the United States.
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It is headquartered in Singapore and has offices in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Bybit works in over 200 countries across the globe with the exception of the US.
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The company was founded in 2013. Headquartered in South Korea. Gate.io is not available in the United States.
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MEXC was founded in 2018 and gained popularity in its hometown of Singapore. US residents have access to the MEXC exchange.
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KuCoin operated by the Hong Kong company. Kucoin is not licensed to operate in the US.
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Huobi Global was founded in 2013 in Beijing. Headquartered in Singapore. Citizens cannot use Huobi in the US.
#7 Bitfinix - 24h Volume: $ 77 428 432.
Bitfinex is located in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Bitfinex is not currently available to U.S. citizens or residents.
My bitcoin-blog: https://sites.google.com/view/solana-sol-potential-growth/
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The Online Courtship Dance
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The Language of Love in the Virtual Realm
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Emoticons and Beyond: Non-Verbal Expression Digitally
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Online Chaperones: Ensuring Virtual Dating Safety
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Meeting in Person:
From Virtual to Reality: The First Date
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Online Love That Defied the Odds
Digital Cupid's Triumphs
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Bittersweet Lessons from Virtual Heartaches
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Online Politeness: Respectful Online Communication
Online Chivalry: The Code of Conduct
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The Futureof Digital Love
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